Year I · No. XL
Weekly · Paris
Sun 4 October 2026
❦
The Crypto Chronicle · The Week in Review
Data as of 2026-10-04 04:22 UTC
Week 40
Circulation: public
International Sunday Edition
This week: Bitcoin and macroeconomics clearly dominate, ahead of regulation (5 main themes).
In focus this week
BTC/Macro lead
ETF BTC +$32mn
S&P 500 ▲ +0.7% 24h
The Week's Editorial

Volume surges; the market gives no reason why

ETF flows, world indices and press sentiment: the crypto market in a single read.

▲   Section I  ·  Markets — Free to share Public edition
I
Of Cryptocurrencies
❦
◆ Market indices · Week 40 vs. 7d
MARKET CAP top 125 CMC BTC DOMINANCE BTC / total TOTAL3 excl. BTC, ETH TOTAL3ES excl. BTC, ETH, stables FEAR & GREED index 0–100
$2.94T 58.0% $905B $625B 65
27 SEP – 4 OCT $2.94T → $2.94T 57.7% → 58.0% $913B → $905B $632B → $625B 70 → 65
Δ 7D ▲ +0.1% ▲ +0.3 pts ▼ −0.9% ▼ −1.1% ▼ −5.0 pts
MIN / MAX $2.89T / $2.95T 57.6% / 58.1% $897B / $913B $617B / $632B 65 / 74
◆ Top 20 cryptocurrencies (excluding stablecoins) weekly review
# Crypto Price 7d Range Week low Week high RSI 7d Week volume
1 BTC $84,806.70 ▲ +0.4% 5.6% $82,563.00 $87,220.00 62 $8.76bn
2 ETH $2,693.55 ▼ −0.2% 5.4% $2,635.69 $2,777.33 64 $4.44bn
4 BNB $783.86 ▲ +1.5% 5.6% $750.47 $792.82 62 $561mn
5 XRP $1.49 ▼ −1.7% 8.0% $1.45 $1.56 55 $1.35bn
7 SOL $120.59 ▼ −0.1% 6.4% $116.32 $123.76 65 $1.70bn
8 TRX $0.3355 ▲ +0.7% 2.6% $0.3324 $0.3409 53 $169mn
9 HYPE $89.79 ▼ −4.2% 8.8% $84.66 $92.11 65 $200mn
10 ZEC $1,306.53 ▼ −20.2% 25.9% $1,271.09 $1,600.02 66 $1.44bn
11 DOGE $0.09267 ▼ −3.6% 8.7% $0.09031 $0.09819 50 $440mn
12 LINK $14.04 ▼ −0.6% 20.0% $13.15 $15.78 64 $388mn
14 ADA $0.243 ▼ −3.6% 9.7% $0.2369 $0.2598 51 $248mn
15 LEO $8.95 ▼ −0.9% 10.9% $8.47 $9.40 39 $30k
16 XLM $0.2153 ▲ +0.4% 14.8% $0.2065 $0.2371 55 $201mn
17 BCH $317.10 ▼ −4.5% 12.8% $296.10 $333.90 51 $101mn
18 NEAR $4.80 ▼ −4.4% 21.8% $4.55 $5.54 73 $1.14bn
19 UNI $9.03 ▼ −7.6% 15.7% $8.45 $9.77 70 $436mn
20 LTC $70.32 ▼ −1.7% 10.5% $65.63 $72.50 65 $212mn
21 CC $0.1256 ▼ −8.8% 27.3% $0.1156 $0.1472 49 $40mn
23 AVAX $11.05 ▲ +2.8% 18.4% $10.15 $12.01 60 $398mn
24 SUI $1.18 ▲ +0.7% 18.3% $1.09 $1.29 57 $722mn

Method: current price and 7-day change from CoinMarketCap (real time). Weekly min/max, range and volume are computed from Binance daily candles over the last 7 days — the current price may therefore sit outside that range after a very recent move. Range = (max − min) / min, in %. 7-day RSI uses Wilder's formula (period 14) on weekly candles (or aggregated daily candles when unavailable). Top 20 by market capitalisation, excluding stablecoins. Cryptocurrencies not listed on Binance are shown as “—”.

Context
◆ Neutral sentiment — analysis based on the international press of the past 48 hours.
Sources CoinMarketCap.com (prices, volumes, market capitalisation)  ·  alternative.me (Fear & Greed Index)  ·  TradingView (Total3 / Total3ES definitions)
II
Of World Markets
❦
Quotes as of 4 October 2026 at 06:15 (Paris time).
NORTH AMERICA.
S&P 500 7,723 ▲ +0.7%
Nasdaq Comp. 30,808 ▲ +1.0%
Dow Jones 51,177 ▲ +0.5%
◆
EUROPE.
CAC 40 FR 7,897 ▲ +0.8%
DAX 40 DE 25,231 ▲ +1.2%
Euro Stoxx 50 6,239 ▲ +1.0%
ASIA-PACIFIC.
Nikkei JP 68,309 ▼ −0.9%
Hang Seng HK 23,972 ▼ −2.6%
SSE Comp. CN 3,842 ▲ +0.3%
KOSPI KR 7,004 ▲ +0.5%
◆
LATIN AMERICA.
IBOVESPA BR 192,115 ▲ +2.6%
IPC Mexico MX 64,532 ▲ +1.1%
EMERGING MARKETS.
Sensex IN 71,910 ▼ −0.8%
JSE Top 40 ZA 6,515 ▲ +0.9%
Exchange
rates
session
EUR / USD
1.1257
▲ +0.1%
GBP / USD
1.3240
▲ +0.4%
CHF / USD
1.2070
▲ +0.2%
JPY / USD
0.006336
▲ +0.1%
USD / EUR
0.8883
▼ −0.1%
USD / GBP
0.7553
▼ −0.4%
USD / CHF
0.8285
▼ −0.2%
USD / JPY
157.83
▼ −0.1%
Reading
On the financial press agenda this week: Bitcoin · macroeconomics · regulation · ETF flows · Ethereum.
Invest in things you know about.
— Peter Lynch, American fund manager (1944-)
III
Of Institutional Flows
❦
◆ Verdict · Friday 2 October session
Bullish conviction.
Bitcoin draws $32mn as its price rises 0.18%: conviction holds. Among altcoins, flows remain cautious (−0.69% to +1.19%).
 
 
FLOWS
PRICE 24H
BTC
12 ETF
+$32mn
+0.18%
ETH
11 ETF
−$17mn
+0.47%
SOL
9 ETF
+$1mn
+1.19%
XRP
5 ETF
−$3mn
−0.01%
DOGE
3 ETF
+$0mn
−0.69%
Net total: +$12mn  ·  40 spot ETFs  ·  AUM $51.2bn
Sources SoSoValue.com (reported flows, assets under management)  ·  CoinMarketCap.com (24-hour change in the underlying)
◆ Who holds what · CFTC report

No unusual moves this week.

Ether: Leveraged Funds short at 29% of open interest, mid-range by historical standards.

Bitcoin: Leveraged Funds short at 35% of open interest, mid-range by historical standards.

A net short does not signal a bearish view: most often it reflects hedging, or arbitrage between the spot and futures markets.

Source CFTC.gov — positions as of 29 September 2026, published 2 October 2026

IV
Of Technical Signals
❦
◆ The week in review · 4 October

The week's most telling story did not lie in Bitcoin's price, which advanced 1.6 per cent over seven days to leave its latest reading at $84,841 — comfortably within its Bollinger corridor, bounded between $82,848 and $86,569, with the 20-day average at $84,708. The price moved modestly and settled tidily. The volume did not behave at all.

Weekly volume in Bitcoin rose 53.6 per cent against the prior week. That is not a marginal acceleration; it is a near-doubling of activity against a backdrop in which the price scarcely shifted. The week before had recorded a contraction of 43.6 per cent. The two readings together describe a market that withdrew, then re-engaged — and that re-engagement arrived without a price breakout to justify it.

The ETF flows complicate the picture further. Bitcoin-linked funds recorded net inflows of $83mn across the week, while Ethereum products suffered net outflows of $118mn, leaving the combined weekly total at minus $35mn. The aggregate is negative; the volume surge is positive. Institutional capital, as measured by listed fund flows, did not lead the week's activity — and may not account for it.

Within the top twenty by market capitalisation, the divergences are sharp. ZEC fell 17.7 per cent and NEAR 10.8 per cent, losses of a magnitude that stand apart from the measured moves recorded elsewhere. BNB and TRX each advanced less than one per cent. The barometer moved from 53.2 to 52.8, neutral throughout and barely altered. No rotation is legible in these figures; no sector carried the week.

What remains, then, is volume without a cause visible in the data. Whether that energy is preparatory or merely incidental is not a question this page can answer. That it was present, in the quantity it arrived, is the signal the week leaves behind.

◆ Bitcoin · technical map · 1W · 52 weeks · 4 October
RSI 70 · $97,651RSI 50 · $75,891RSI 30 · $42,198$84,841OctDecFebAprJunAug
RSI 70 (overbought)RSI 50 (neutral)RSI 30 (oversold)
◆ Weekly RSI map · Top 10weekly position · daily target prices
Weekly RSI · oversold / overbought pricesgap vs MA200305070MA200BTC$72,965$86,946$84,84161.9+18.6%ETH$2,286$2,810$2,69463.7+27.1%BNB$649.18$821.13$784.7062.5+22.9%XRP$1.19$1.66$1.4954.9+16.4%SOL$89.69$125.21$120.7264.5+40.4%›TRX$0.3217$0.353$0.335553.5+1.2%HYPE$67.15$104.08$89.8764.7+48.0%›ZEC$793.06$1,882$1,30665.9+114.7%›DOGE$0.07336$0.1066$0.0926650.2+5.5%LINK$8.88$16.15$14.0264.2+46.7%›
◆ Weekly performance · Top 107-day price change
7-day performance · sorted best → worst0%−20%+20%BNB+0.7%TRX+0.6%BTC+0.4%ETH+0.2%LINK−0.0%SOL−1.0%XRP−1.8%HYPE−2.0%DOGE−4.4%ZEC−17.7%
The week in motion · weekly RSIheating upcoolingsteady (faded)last weekthis weekZEC 78HYPE 66SOL 65LINK 64ETH 64BNB 62BTC 62XRP 56DOGE 52TRX 5266 ZEC −11.865 HYPE −1.465 SOL −0.964 LINK64 ETH62 BNB62 BTC55 XRP −1.253 TRX +1.150 DOGE −2.3in colour: the cryptos that moved · in grey: the steady ones, set back
Analysis based on the international press of the past 48 hours.